Australia exported 926,675 tonnes of barley and 42,851 tonnes of sorghum in October, according to the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Feed barley exports more than doubled in the first month of the new season to 713,144 tonnes, compared to 342,284 tonnes exported in September.
Flexi Grain group manager Sam Roach said feed barley exports had "exploded" in October.
"We expect to see supplies rise to 1 million tonnes per month for November and December and to around 500,000 tonnes in January, so Australia looks set to export an astonishing 4 million tonnes in total from October 1 to January or February."
“This is an incredible figure considering that the total export availability is around 5 million tonnes for the October-September marketing year. To be anywhere near 80% this early in the season is unprecedented," explained the expert.
According to him, the main factors are the extremely strong general demand for barley in China, and the good prices of the Australian origin.
"The pace of purchases and deliveries in China indicates that demand is much greater than the USDA estimate and many traders' figures. The current situation suggests that China will buy at least 3-4 million tons more than the USDA forecast, which is a significant number in the barley space,” Roach is emphatic.
In terms of malting barley, China was again the biggest buyer with 123,878 tonnes, followed by Mexico with 35,332 tonnes and Vietnam with 33,000 tonnes.
“The strong demand in Mexico, South Africa and Vietnam is a great phenomenon, but all this is likely to continue until the removal of tariffs in China, when the situation will change.
With Chinese demand so strong and our significant freight advantage to China compared to competing sources, I think we will see Australia's competitiveness vis-à-vis South America and the Middle East/Africa diminish further in the medium term. Australian malting barley prices are much more competitive with Canadian and French origins and this will provide all the exports Australia needs,” Roach concluded.
Feed barley exports more than doubled in the first month of the new season to 713,144 tonnes, compared to 342,284 tonnes exported in September.
Flexi Grain group manager Sam Roach said feed barley exports had "exploded" in October.
"We expect to see supplies rise to 1 million tonnes per month for November and December and to around 500,000 tonnes in January, so Australia looks set to export an astonishing 4 million tonnes in total from October 1 to January or February."
“This is an incredible figure considering that the total export availability is around 5 million tonnes for the October-September marketing year. To be anywhere near 80% this early in the season is unprecedented," explained the expert.
According to him, the main factors are the extremely strong general demand for barley in China, and the good prices of the Australian origin.
"The pace of purchases and deliveries in China indicates that demand is much greater than the USDA estimate and many traders' figures. The current situation suggests that China will buy at least 3-4 million tons more than the USDA forecast, which is a significant number in the barley space,” Roach is emphatic.
In terms of malting barley, China was again the biggest buyer with 123,878 tonnes, followed by Mexico with 35,332 tonnes and Vietnam with 33,000 tonnes.
“The strong demand in Mexico, South Africa and Vietnam is a great phenomenon, but all this is likely to continue until the removal of tariffs in China, when the situation will change.
With Chinese demand so strong and our significant freight advantage to China compared to competing sources, I think we will see Australia's competitiveness vis-à-vis South America and the Middle East/Africa diminish further in the medium term. Australian malting barley prices are much more competitive with Canadian and French origins and this will provide all the exports Australia needs,” Roach concluded.
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