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Exports along the Danube - myth or reality?

Износът по Дунав – мит или реалност?

After Russia left the Black Sea Agreement and launched a series of attacks on Ukraine's seaports, attacks on the Danube followed.

"For the first time since the beginning of the war, Moscow has attacked the Danube terminals," said analyst Andrey Sizov. "In our view, this is a more important event than the attacks on the port of Odessa, which were expected anyway. Currently, the Danube is the most important export route for Ukrainian grain," Sizov added.

Ukraine's uncertain future has led the country and the world to place high hopes on the important Danube ports of Reni and Izmail, on the border with Romania.

It is recalled that local grain traders, including Nibulon and Kernel, have expanded their capacity at these ports in response to the Russian naval blockade. "These ports are Ukraine's most important hope for grain and oilseed exports. We believe that Ukraine can export up to 2.5 million tons of grain and oilseeds every month through them. This would be enough for the country to export most of the quantities. But at the moment it is not clear what the damage is and whether Russia will resort to new attacks in the future," said Carlos Mera, an analyst at Rabobank.

Statistics also show how important these ports were for Ukraine. In May this year, the volume of Ukrainian grain exports via the Danube River reached 2.2 million tons, an increase of almost 900,000 tons compared to the situation at the end of last year. Then, those shipments exceeded exports through the Black Sea Corridor for May as inspections delayed the departure of ships from the Black Sea.

After Russia carried out precision strikes on the Ukrainian side of the river, in practice this door also remains closed to Kiev. On the other hand, the events ease the regional pressure caused by the conflict. Romania will be able to prioritize its own exports, and normal river navigation is expected to be restored in Bulgaria, since before the attacks, most river vessels were diverted to the conflict zone and served Ukrainian grain.

In terms of trade, at the beginning of the week the prices of grain for delivery to the port of Constanta were: bread wheat - 235 EUR/ton, feed wheat - 223 EUR/ton, corn - 200 EUR/ton, barley - 183 EUR/ton, sunflower – 465

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