Ukraine may increase grain exports for the remainder of the 2023-24 marketing year, according to a report by the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).

The FAS Global Agricultural Information Network shows that after an initial decline following Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023, total grain exports rose from 2 million tonnes in September 2023 to 5, 2 million tonnes in December.

In the weeks since it pulled out of a UN-brokered grain export deal, Russia has bombed grain infrastructure in Ukraine's Black Sea and Danube ports. These attacks have decreased in recent months.

In recent months, Ukraine has developed a new export corridor in the Black Sea, following the territorial waters of neighboring countries to reach the Bosphorus. In the opposite direction, ships enter Ukrainian territorial waters from Romanian waters near the mouth of the Danube River.

For the 2023-24 season, FAS forecasts an 8% annual increase in maize exports to 29.2 million tonnes, a 3% increase in wheat exports to 17.7 million tonnes, a 22% increase in barley exports to 3.3 million tonnes and a nearly 10-fold increase in rye exports to 170,000 tons.

"Based on high exports in December 2023, if Ukraine maintains average monthly exports of around 4 million tonnes for all grains combined for the remainder of the marketing year, they will export most of the crop, leaving around 5 million tonnes in total for all other grains as ending stocks for 2023-24,” FAS said.

The agency also noted that investment and efficiency on the Danube export routes and transshipment capacity at the port of Constanta in Romania "continue to increase, providing additional opportunities to support export levels." The increased export forecasts do not assume major damage from attacks on port infrastructure and inbound or outbound vessels.

FAS also forecasts an annual increase in the production of the main cereals in Ukraine. According to them, wheat production in 2023-24 will grow by 11% to 22.5 million tons. Maize production rose nearly 17% to 30.5 million tonnes, while barley production was pegged at 5.9 million tonnes, up 2% from 2022-23.