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What will world grain production be?

Какво ще бъде световното производство на зърно?

Total cereal production in 2023-24 will reach record levels, according to the latest cereal supply and demand report by the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The report, released on February 2, put global coarse grain production at 1.532 billion tonnes, after a revision of 12 million tonnes upwards from the previous month. Most of the revision was due to new, official data from Canada, China, Turkey and the United States, where a combination of higher yields and larger harvested areas than previously expected led to higher production estimates for corn. Total cereal production for 2023-24 was revised upwards by 13.2 million tonnes to 2.836 billion tonnes, an increase of 1.2% over 2022-23.

The FAO also raised its 2023-24 wheat production forecast by 1.4 million tonnes to 788.5 million, still 2.2% below the 2022-23 total.

World cereal consumption in 2023-24 is forecast at 2.822 billion tonnes, up 8.9 million from the December forecast and 1.2% above the 2022-23 level, led by higher expected feed consumption, particularly in the European Union as well as in Australia and the United States.

Thus, the ratio between global stocks and consumption of cereals in 2023-24 is projected at a level of 31.1%, exceeding the level of 30.9% in the 2022-23 season, the report said.

Global trade in cereals in 2023-24 is now forecast to reach 480 million tonnes, an increase of 0.8% from the previous year, driven mainly by higher traded volumes forecast for coarse grains, while global trade in wheat and rice may decline, FAO says.

The FAO Cereal Price Index was down 2.2% from the previous month.

"Global wheat export prices fell in January, driven by strong competition among exporters and recently harvested supplies in Southern Hemisphere countries, while corn prices fell sharply, reflecting improved crop conditions and the start of harvest in Argentina and higher supplies in United States," the report said.

"In contrast, rice price quotations rose 1.2% in January, reflecting strong export demand for Thai and Pakistani higher quality Indica rice and additional purchases from Indonesia."

In a separate report, FAO's food price index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a range of globally traded food commodities, averaged 118 points in January, down 1 percent from December and 10.4 percent from its corresponding value a year ago.

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