Black Sea market analysts at SovEcon raised their forecast for the 2024-25 Russian wheat crop by 0.9 million tonnes to 92.2 million tonnes, reflecting favorable weather conditions for winter wheat development.

Since the beginning of January, precipitation in the main areas of winter crops has been twice the norm, resulting in snow depths of 10 cm in the south, 30 cm in the central and up to 50 cm in the Volga region.

The update notes that if there are no significant weather anomalies, this positive outlook for the Russian crop may start to put pressure on global prices around the end of the first quarter of 2024.

Refinitiv Commodities Research's 2023-24 soybean production forecast for Brazil was cut by 3.9 million tonnes to 149.3 million tonnes, reflecting sharply declining crop densities in states with the greatest production potential.

Satellite images show mixed conditions in key areas, with near-record low plant densities in Mato Grosso and Paraná, but close to and above average levels relative to other regions.

The weather over the past two weeks has been unfavorable in the central-west and south-east parts of the country, with unusually hot conditions everywhere except in the south, with some areas also seeing well below average rainfall.

Amid low soil moisture conditions in the central-west and southeast regions, as well as poor weather forecasts for the second crop (safrina), the 2023-24 maize production forecast fell by 1.4 million tonnes to 119, 2 million tons.

Not only forecasts, but also political decisions have an impact on global markets. Poland's agriculture minister said yesterday that the embargo on Ukrainian wheat will not be lifted until Poland and Ukraine establish bilateral rules for the transfer of goods between the two countries.

This decision reflects not only Polish, but also general European sentiments on the subject. In recent days, large-scale protests were organized in front of the European Parliament in Brussels, where Italian and French farmers grumbled against unfair competition with Ukrainian origin.