Turkey is expected to export a record 5.4 million tonnes of flour in the 2023-24 marketing year, according to the latest quarterly update from the International Grains Council (IGC).

As demand from Iraq (a key buyer of Turkish flour) is expected to be subdued, supplies are likely to be partially diverted to other destinations in Middle East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

According to the IGC, increased exports from Turkey should offset smaller planned deliveries from other significant suppliers, notably Kazakhstan and India. Kazakhstan is forecast to export just 2.6 million tonnes next year, down from 2.9 million tonnes year-on-year, and India's total exports are expected to fall by 100,000 tonnes to 200,000, the report said of the IGC.

Recall that the IGC lowered its forecast for total global wheat flour trade in 2023-24 to 14.1 million tonnes, which would match the previous year's total. If realized, the amount traded would fall below the five-year average and be 3.5 million tonnes below the record set in 2016-17.

Imports of flour from the Commonwealth of Independent States (former Soviet Union) are expected to fall significantly from the previous season, led by Uzbekistan, where imports are forecast to be among the lowest in two decades. The IGC projects Uzbekistan to import 400,000 tonnes of flour in 2023-24, up from an estimated 600,000 tonnes last year.

Supplies to Asia's Far East, the world's largest wheat flour importing region, are forecast to fall slightly from 4.1 million tonnes to 4 million, largely reflecting an expected slowdown in purchases from Afghanistan, improved domestic wheat stocks and possibly reduced supplies from Kazakhstan, its main supplier.

Even with the decline in imports, Afghanistan is expected to be the world's leading importer of flour in the 2023-24 season at 2.35 million tonnes, according to the IGC. In Middle East Asia, another leading flour importing region, supplies are expected to ease slightly with lower imports from Iran offsetting faster purchases from Syria and Yemen.

Iraqi imports are forecast to fall to 1.6 million tonnes in 2023-24, about 400,000 tonnes less than the previous year and the lowest total since 2014-15, the IGC said.