Egypt's ending wheat stocks in the 2023-24 marketing year are forecast to fall to their lowest level in 20 years as the country grapples with a smaller crop, increased demand and a shift in trade flows due to the ongoing conflict with Russia with Ukraine. These are the conclusions drawn in the latest country report by USDA's FAS.

The annual decline in wheat production was due to a reduction in harvested area, which fell to 1.35 million hectares compared to 1.45 million in 2022-23. ", the report says.

FAS noted that in an effort to increase domestic wheat production, the Egyptian government last April increased the delivery price of wheat by almost 70% compared to the previous market year.

In 2023-24, consumption is expected to rise by 50,000 tonnes to 20.6 million, which would be the second highest on record, FAS said. Egypt's population currently stands at roughly 105 million, according to the Central Public Mobilization Agency, but that does not include nearly 9 million migrants from Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Sudan and other countries. Egypt's population (excluding migrants) is expected to reach 124 million by 2030, putting more pressure on wheat supplies.

Egyptian wheat imports are forecast to rise 7% to 12 million tonnes in the 2023-24 marketing year, the report said.

Egypt, the largest importer of wheat in the world, was adversely affected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as the country had to look for other alternatives.

The largest suppliers of wheat to Egypt in 2022-23 were Russia (8.1 million tons) and the European Union (1.8 million tons), according to FAS. It is estimated that in 2023-24, Egypt will receive much less wheat from Ukraine (856,377 tons) than it used to before the war.