Bad weather in key regions of Brazil is expected to reduce the country's grain production to 295.6 million tonnes for the 2023-24 season, down 24.2 million tonnes (7.6%) from the previous year, according to the latest report of CONAB.

In its latest survey, CONAB said the decline in total production reflects an expected 7.1% reduction in yield, at a projected 78.1 million hectares.

"From the beginning of the marketing year until mid-December, weather conditions were variable and unfavorable in the main production regions," the report said. "These climatic anomalies caused significant losses in crop productivity, particularly in soybeans, the main product cultivated during the period."

Thus, soybeans could reach 146.9 million tons, which would be a 5% decrease from the previous harvest. Low rainfall and excessive temperatures in the main production regions were cited by CONAB as the reason for the decline, but in places where sowings were carried out later, rainfall helped the crops develop.

With the outlook for soybean production down, CONAB also cut its export forecast to 92.33 million tons, from an estimated 94.16 million tons in its previous report. The import forecast was raised from 200,000 tonnes to 800,000 tonnes.

Sowing of second-crop maize takes place in the main producing states, such as Mato Grosso and Paraná. The area planted to corn is expected to decrease by 8.3% to approximately 15.76 million hectares, CONAB said.

Expectations are that 87.35 million tons of corn will be produced from the second harvest alone. The total production is estimated at 112.75 million tons.

Production of wheat, the main winter crop, is estimated at 9.6 million tonnes.