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Is a grain truce coming?

Задава ли се зърнено примирие?

The latest analyzes of international experts draw the hypothesis that it is the grain that may be the reason that ends the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Since Moscow left the grain deal last month, the country has launched a series of effective attacks on Ukraine's maritime and river infrastructure. In response, drone attacks on the port of Novorossiysk on August 4 demonstrated Ukraine's ability to strike Russian ships carrying wheat or oil.

These events, on the one hand, show that the bombing of ports in Russia and Ukraine could prevent important grain exports from reaching world markets and raise food prices again. On the other hand, analysts say, these developments could convince the two warring parties that it is in their mutual interest to sit down at the negotiating table, or at least strike a new grain deal.

In the current situation, if the attacks on the Danube ports continue, it will deprive Ukraine of significant revenues. Agricultural exports are the country's main source of revenue, accounting for $28 billion, or 41 percent of total exports, in 2021, the year before the war broke out.

For its part, Russia is the world's largest exporter of wheat, exporting 45.5 million tons of the grain in the record 2022/2023 season. According to estimates by the US Department of Agriculture, this figure could be improved in the new season .

Continued tensions also pose other risks that are not comfortable for both Europe and the warring countries. Eduard Zernin, head of the Russian Union of Grain Exporters, commented that "hidden sanctions" could lead to increased freight and insurance costs for Russia. This will affect the prices of wheat and other cereals on the world market.

The danger that grain from Russia and Ukraine will remain unavailable to the world market at a time when Canada, Australia and Argentina have sown far less wheat than the previous season is a strong motive for the international community to join forces for peace.

Whether the grain will be able to do what neither the number of human casualties nor the humanitarian treatment of poor countries has been able to do, only time will tell.

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