Just a few months ago, US wheat prices fell to three-year lows. This provided a competitive advantage to the country's exports and eventually attracted a major buyer of grain, in the form of China, which led to a sharp rise in futures.

China's import intentions are often unknown, but offer ample opportunity, and this can change trader sentiment more easily than other fundamentals.

Nevertheless, sentiment remains bearish on US wheat as of mid-2022, despite the ongoing Black Sea conflict between Russia and Ukraine and an expected tightening of available global supplies through mid-2024.

China's wheat production is reported to be near a record, but extreme rainfall has inevitably affected quality, which may be the reason China has re-entered the world market.

Official figures show US wheat exports to China between June and October (the first five months of the 2023-24 marketing year) were around 392,000 tonnes.

As of Nov. 30, the USDA announced the sale of 1.075 million tons of wheat to China for delivery in 2023-24, a three-year high for the period.

A little later, in early December, China bought a total of 1.01 million tonnes in three consecutive days, bringing US wheat imports for the 2023-24 season to over 2 million tonnes so far.

Statistics show that over the past 20 years, the largest US wheat shipments to China were in 2013-14 at 4.25 million tonnes, and the second largest was recorded in 2020-21 at 3.45 million the ton.

China's share of total U.S. wheat exports in those years jumped to 14 percent and 13 percent, respectively, against the usual annual average of about 4 percent.