Forecasts for Turkey's 2023-24 wheat and barley production have risen, thanks to heavy rainfall following a historic winter drought, according to a report by the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).

Wheat production was revised upwards to 18.5 million tonnes and that of barley to 7.8 million tonnes.

"Better yields compared to last year due to improved weather conditions will largely offset production losses from the winter drought," FAS said.

At the end of August, the harvesting of corn begins. Production for 2023-24 is now forecast at 8 million tonnes, due to a significant increase in acreage as farmers switch from cotton to maize.

Wheat imports for the 2023-24 season are forecast at 8.25 million tonnes, mainly due to high stock levels from the previous year. Imports in 2022-23 reached 12 million tonnes, a record high. The main suppliers for the country were Russia with 8.3 million tons and Ukraine with 3.2 million tons.

"Unprecedented winter drought and the elimination of tariffs, which lasted until May, allowed both the government and the private sector to achieve a historic record of 12 million tonnes of wheat imports last year," FAS said.

Exports of wheat and wheat products are estimated at 7.25 million tonnes, slightly higher than in 2022-23 due to better domestic production of durum wheat.

Turkey does not normally export wheat except for transshipment, but FAS said exports of durum wheat could be allowed.

According to another major agency, the IGC, increased exports from Turkey should offset smaller planned deliveries from other significant suppliers, notably Kazakhstan and India. Kazakhstan is forecast to export just 2.6 million tonnes next year, down from 2.9 million tonnes year-on-year, and India's total exports are expected to fall by 100,000 tonnes to 200,000, the report said of the IGC.

Recall that the IGC lowered its forecast for total global wheat flour trade in 2023-24 to 14.1 million tonnes, which would match the previous year's total.