According to the Ukrainian Grain Association, Ukraine could potentially export about 49 million tons of grain this marketing year if current export logistics continue to function.

This will include 15-16 million tonnes exported by truck and rail through The European Solidarity Routes, 30 million tonnes through the Danube River ports and Romania, and the rest through the newly formed Black Sea routes.

Although the current grain crop looks promising, farmers are waiting to see if their grain will reach international markets to help sustain higher domestic prices and improve their liquidity for the next season.

Ukraine shipped up to six million tons of grain a month from its Black Sea ports before the war began. After the end of the Black Sea Initiative in the summer, exports remained severely limited, and hope for the country came on 27 September when a London-based insurance company agreed to insure ships carrying grain from there.

The insurance product is the result of the cooperation between the insurance company, the technology company, the state bank and the road infrastructure fund.

While these developments give farmers hope that the new routes will allow Ukraine to export its grain in the 2023/2024 marketing year, real threats remain. According to UK intelligence, in the event of hostilities, Russia could use sea mines, which would again lead to reduced exports.

According to official data of the Ukrainian ministry, winter wheat sowing is underway and areas are expected to remain almost unchanged from last year. Meanwhile, corn acres are expected to decline as farmers are more likely to turn to high-margin crops such as canola, sugar beet and soybeans, the ministry added.