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Another drop in Brazil's crop forecasts

Нов спад в прогнозите за бразилската реколта
Brazil's Conab agency cut its forecast for the country's wheat production by about 15 percent from its previous forecast, citing excessive rainfall in southern Brazil, a factor compromising the late-season harvest.

The country's wheat production is now estimated at 8.14 million tons, the second highest volume in the country's history, after the 10.55 million tons harvested a year ago.

According to Conab, lower supplies, a sudden increase in wheat exports from Brazil in recent years and a drop in imports from January to October 2023 will push Brazilian stocks to their lowest level in about two decades.

Overall, Brazil is a net importer of wheat, with Argentina as its main supplier.

Supply shortages have also pushed prices up nearly 30% over the past 30 days, Conab said.

Excessive rains in southern Brazil reduced yields in major producers in the states of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, Conab said.

This affected wheat quality and disrupted disease control management, according to the agency.

With production falling in 2023, Conab believes Brazil will need to increase wheat imports by 600,000 tonnes over its previous forecast.

Conab said ending wheat stocks in Brazil as of July 31, 2024 are expected to reach their lowest levels in more than two decades, citing historical data.

Inventories will be just over 240,000 tonnes, compared with 740,000 tonnes a year earlier and around 2 million tonnes in recent years, Conab data showed.

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