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U.S. wheat suffered from competition with Russia

Пшеницата в САЩ пострада от конкуренцията с Русия

Wheat futures in Chicago continued to fall after the market came under heavy pressure from top importer China, which in just one week canceled delivery of a total of 504,000 tonnes of US wheat (SRW) amid abundant global supplies.

The three cancellations occurred between March 7 and 11, according to the USDA. China last made several purchases of wheat from the US in December 2023.

"China's refusal is due to falling global wheat prices," Tanner Emke, grain and oilseed economist for CoBank, told World Grain.

“FOB prices for Russian and Ukrainian wheat fell below $200 per tonne, while US SRW prices are above $220 per tonne. Russia's exports are further aided by their weak currency," he added.

Statistics show that in the last year alone, the Russian ruble has fallen by 15% against the US dollar.

Falling export prices for Russian wheat and high supply on the world market are reducing demand for US wheat.

"The market is also pricing in line with expectations for another big Russian wheat crop as soil moisture in the region is optimal heading into spring," says Emke.

According to the Russian Grain Union, only about 4% of Russia's winter cereals are in "poor and very poor" condition, compared to the usual average of 6% for this stage of the season.

"Wheat prices are likely to fall further when you look at the outlook for production in the northern hemisphere," said a Sydney analyst.

Last week, China's finance ministry said it would spend 140.63 billion yuan ($19.6 billion) on stockpiling grains, edible oils and other materials, an increase of 8.01 percent from last year. In this context, China's purchasing behavior is again becoming a factor in the course of world trade.

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