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Global forecasts shrink

Световните прогнози се свиват

The start of the wheat harvest has prompted many international agencies to adjust their production forecasts. A similar trend is observed among the springers, which starts already now.

The International Grains Council (IGC) expects total grain trade in the 2022-23 season (July/June) to total 411 million tonnes, down from 424 million tonnes a year earlier, mainly due to the contraction in maize volumes.

Trade in sorghum, and to a lesser extent barley, is also expected to decline, offsetting the expansion in wheat trade, said Darren Cooper, senior economist at IGC.

Regarding corn, experts from Strategie Grains are not very optimistic either. They warn that a new dry spell and limited acreage could prevent EU countries from recovering maize production next season.

Last year, drought prompted European farmers not to increase corn acreage in 2023, leaving it at its lowest level in five years. This, in addition to the climate picture this season, provoked analysts to adjust their forecast for EU corn production by 900 thousand tons, to 61.2 million tons.

They also clarify that if the dry weather persists until the end of July, the forecast may drop to or even below 60 million tons.

In the U.S., climate has also crashed corn statistics. Corn crops are at their worst in 35 years, according to data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service under the country's agriculture ministry.

The poor condition of maize is a consequence of the constant drought, and at the moment the crop is entering a crucial stage of its development. Farmers in the U.S. corn belt were hoping for a change in climate, but moderate rainfall was only available in isolated areas and it proved insufficient to improve the situation.

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