Turkey's bountiful wheat, corn and barley harvests for the 2023-24 marketing year are expected to dampen import demand for those grains, while wheat exports could hit a record, according to the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). .

In its latest report, the Global Agricultural Information Network GAIN - FAS said favorable weather conditions for most of the growing season boosted production. Wheat is expected to be 19.5 million tons, corn 8.4 million tons and barley 8 million tons. If realized, the barley harvest would be the second largest in history.

The FAS wheat import forecast is held steady at 10 million tonnes, assuming the private sector continues to buy wheat from abroad, down from 12 million tonnes in 2022-23.

Barley production reduced import demand to 400,000 tonnes, down from 2.1 million tonnes the previous year. Maize imports are estimated at 2 million tonnes, down from 2.6 million last year.

"The pace of wheat imports is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year," the FAS report said. "However, as a significant amount of imported wheat is processed and re-exported as flour and pasta via the Suez Canal, there is a chance that import demand will change if the current situation in the Red Sea persists."

Grain shipments are increasingly diverted from the Suez Canal due to attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, according to the World Trade Organization.

Turkey's 2023-24 wheat export forecast was revised higher by the FAS to near a record 8.75 million tonnes, partly on the expectation that stronger-than-expected flour and pasta exports would continued throughout the year.

The forecast also takes into account the Turkish government's decision to temporarily allow durum wheat exports in response to oversupply.

For the first six months of the 2023-24 marketing year (June-November), wheat flour exports were 2.1 million tonnes, up 28% compared to the same period last year. This increase was mainly due to higher demand from African countries. Meanwhile, pasta exports during the same period rose 3% year-on-year to 684,000 tonnes.